Bradley Valentin 
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Employment Situation Summary today, to somewhat negative results. The unemployment rate and the unemployed people “changed little in August.” However, the unemployment rate moved from 4.2 in July to 4.3% in August.
The report shows that the economy added 22,000 jobs, lower than many cited (75,000). The expected unemployment rate was 4.3%, which matched reports today, so let’s break down what we’re looking at for this latest month.
We see a smaller labor force participation rate (62.3) over the last year, as well as an employment-population ratio of 59.6%. This means that overall, fewer people are actively participating in the labor market.
New Entrants & Teenagers
New entrants to the labor market, those seeking their first job, decreased by almost 200,000. This shows that new entrants found a significant number of starter jobs in the market, marking a seasonal improvement for August.
Teenagers, who make up a small number of the labor market, hold a high unemployment rate at 13.9%. This showed little change, but is higher than other demographics. Seasonal job changes may change be changing from teenagers losing their seasonal jobs, while new entrants are taking more permanent roles.
Job Losses
The Federal Government saw an increase in unemployment, with 15,000 more employees losing their jobs. This continues the decline in government jobs, with a total of 97,000 decrease since January 2025.
Manufacturing employment is down 78,000 over the year, and dropped about 12,000 for the month. Large strikes in transportation equipment manufacturing led to a 15,000 decrease in employment.
Reason for Concern?
Many have been jumping at the opportunity to blame political/ideological views for the issues in the job market. Tariffs continue to be a discussion, as many worry that the impact will continue to show a steady decrease in the stock market, economy, and labor market. The labor market has moved from 4.1% to 4.3% over the last few months, potentially validating the concern for some.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently stated that the labor market was “at or near maximum employment” with 4.2% unemployment. We remained cautiously optimistic about the economy, and a small change in unemployment might move us to cautious. However, we have not seen major layoffs (outside of Federal Government jobs), and there isn’t any obvious signs of concern, outside of the slow decline. A few months of continued decline will bring alarm, but for now, we will stay cautious and continue to review the data.
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