Employment Situation – Good News for September?

Today, October 4th, 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Employment Situation Results for September. According to the summary, employment increased by 254,000 in September, and the unemployment rate moved to 4.1%. This is a 0.1% decrease from last August which was reported at 4.2%, but may have been lower. Today, the numbers for August have been revised up by 17,000, meaning the economy added 17,000 more jobs than initially expected.

While it is great news to see an increase of more than a quarter of a million employed, there are still questions and still work to be done. Last year, at the same time, the unemployment rate was 3.8%, 0.3% higher than this year. Today there are a reported 6.8 million unemployed people in the U.S., up from 6.3 million last year.

Breaking Down the Numbers

The number stands out: 254,000 more people are employed this week! But there’s more to the story, and we will break down the number. Those jobless less than 5 weeks decreased by 322,000 (sitting at 2.1 million). However, the long-term unemployed (more than 27 weeks) is at 1.6 million, which is 300,000 more than a year ago. Nearly a quarter of all unemployed are long-term unemployed.

There is bad news for those who are long-term unemployed, as a report from Brookings earlier this year found that “only 11 percent of those who were long-term unemployed in a given month returned to steady, full-time employment a year later.” Essentially, once you hit that 27 weeks of unemployment, you are likely to be stuck being unemployed for another 25 weeks (at least).

Part-time work is also up, even for those who desire full-time work. Some are reduced to part-time work from their full-time jobs, while others are being hired to part-time work from being unemployed. The latter will help add to this number of 254,000, once again, leaving more questions than answers. A few weeks ago, the job market was revised over a 12 month period showing that the government overestimated the strength of the labor market.